The following is a forecast for the 2025 Federal Election based on a predictive model developed by Social Change Media.
The model is based on historical swing variations across states and seats with major independent challenges over the last 6 elections. The model also incorporates the potential for polling error, similar in scale to the polling error of the 2019 Federal Election.
See also:
- Early Votes Adjusted Forecast which accounts for prepoll and postal votes to date.
- 2025 Federal Election Forecast Model Primer for a full explanation of the model.
Australian 2025 Federal Election Forecast
Last updated: 2 May 2025 10:30 pm because of: YouGov.
| Current estimated ALP National 2PP% | 52.21% * |
|---|
* Calculated from a weighted average of SCM's PollTrend and the AEF Regular Forecast.
Seats Forecast
| Worst | Lower | Median | Upper | Best | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | 70 | 73 | 79 | 84 | 88 |
| LNP | 41 | 46 | 53 | 60 | 65 |
| IND | 9 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 16 |
| GRN | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| CA | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| KAP | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Range categories
| Range | Explanation |
|---|---|
| Worst | The number seats or less in this category would occur 5% of the time, or once in every 20 elections. |
| Lower to Upper | The number of seats won in this range would occur 66.67% of the time or twice in every 3 elections. Seats won within this range are twice as likely to occur to those outside of this range. |
| Median | This is the most likely number of seats won. |
| Best | The number of seats or more in this category would occur 5% of the time, or once in every 20 elections. |
Probability Ratings
| RESULT | ALP | LNP |
|---|---|---|
| Winning less than 73 seats | 12.62% | 99.65% |
| Minority Government (73-75 seats) | 14.44% | 0.25% |
| Majority Government (76+ seats) | 72.94% | 0.09% |
| Any type of win | 87.38% | 0.35% |
| Equivalent odds | $1.14 | $289 |
| Current odds (TAB) | $1.09 | $7.50 |
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