Early Voting Adjusted Forecast: 2025 Federal Election

Last updated: 1 May Apr 2025 12:40 pm because of latest Prepoll and Postal counts from AEC and updates to current 2PP% polling averages.

This forecast is an amended version of the SCM Election Forecast that estimates what 2PP% the LNP would need to achieve on election day.

The forecast is based on the prepoll & postal voting to date (as reported by the AEC) and the state of the polls during the prepoll voting period. The forecast also uses trends on prepoll and postal voting between the ALP and LNP at the last election.

Forecasts

From early votes to date

Based on Prepoll votes received from the AEC up to 1 May 2025 and current 2PP% polling averages.

Metric	Current	Previous Day	Change
	Forecast
Current LNP 2PP% early vote:	49.13%	48.80%	+0.33%
Required LNP 2PP% of remaining votes to win:	55.85%	55.14%	+0.71%

For the remainder of the campaign

Metric	Current	Previous Day	Change
	Forecast
LNP 2PP% required on election day	56.58%	55.54%	+1.04%
Current Election Day LNP 2PP%:	45.84%	45.54%	+0.30%
LNP 2PP% Deficit:	-10.74%	-10.00%	-0.74%

Commentary

A slight improvement for the LNP in the latest polls, combined with yesterday's large batch of prepolls, where historically the LNP do better than the ALP (which our model factors in), has seen the LNP arrest the acceleration in the LNP 2PP% Deficit for the remainder of the campaign.

But this deficit (-10.61%), the 2PP% gap between what's required for the remainder of the campaign and what the LNP are estimated to be currently scoring at up to now during early voting, remains very large and highly unlikely to be bridged, even if you allow for a polling error similar to 2019 (~3%).

About the forecast

Why this forecast?

Currently, pollsters (and forecasters) attempt to estimate the 2PP% of the major parties as a way to determine who is likely to win the election. The assumption is that if the 2PP% estimates hold for election day then this will enable a reliable prediction to be made.

But this approach ignores the fact that in the weeks leading up to election day, millions of votes have already been cast, where the 2PP polling performance of the major parties can be different to what they ultimately achieve on polling day. This inevitably undermines polling forecasts for election day.

What's required is an updated forecast that takes into account how many people have voted early and the likely way they would have voted.

It's a bit like limited-overs cricket

This forecast aims to estimate the LNP 2PP% required for victory, to be achieved on election day based on their current estimated 2PP%, prepoll & postal votes so far, and the estimated number of votes remaining to be cast in the election.

The logic here is depending on how many votes have been cast so far and how each party is performing in the polls at the time, this can substantially affect the required 2PP% of votes that need to be achieved for the remainder of the election campaign.

A good analogy to this forecast is limited-overs cricket where (for the team batting 2nd) the required run rate from the remaining overs changes as the game progresses. If the chasing team is ahead of the initial required run rate, they are more likely to gain victory. Conversely, if the chasing team is behind the initial required run rate, then they are less likely to win and more likely to lose the match.

To continue our limited overs cricket analogy, for pollsters ignoring prepoll and postal numbers, this is like continuing to base your match prediction on the required run rate for the team batting at the start of their innings, whilst the innings progresses and their scoring rate changes.

Granted, in elections, unlike cricket where we can see the runs scored each over, we cannot see the votes cast for each party during prepoll until after the election.

However, given that polls close to polling day can usually predict the voting intention within their margin of error, therefore we should be able to make reasonable estimates of 2PP votes during prepoll if we use 2PP% estimates (derived from poll aggregators) applied to the number of prepoll votes cast so far.

Now, if we can set a required 2PP% for victory (akin to the required run rate in limited overs cricket) then this enables us to calculate a 2PP% required for the remainder of the campaign and on election day, similar to the run rate required from the remaining overs for the team batting second in limited overs cricket.

Calculations

All voting statistics have been sourced from the Australian Electoral Commission.

Pre-election values

Metric	Value	Explanation
LNP 2PP% required to win 76 seats:	53.03%	Derived from the SCM 2025 Federal Election Forecasting model.
Total voters enrolled:	18,098,797
Informal vote rate (2022)	5.19%
Estimated informal votes	939,200	Total voters enrolled x Informal vote (2022).
Estimated available votes	17,159,597
Estimated LNP votes required to win the election:	9,099,734	LNP 2PP% required to win 76 seats x Expected available votes.

Current state of play

Metric	Value	Explanation
Early votes cast to date:	7,202,100	Prepoll and postal votes. Postal votes estimated: Number of postal vote applications sent by the AEC x Postal vote return rate from the 2022 election.
Remaining votes to be cast:	9,957,497	Expected available votes - Early votes cast to date.
Total LNP votes required to win election	9,099,734	LNP 2PP% required to win 76 seats x Estimated available votes.
Early LNP votes cast to date:	3,538,569	Prepoll: Votes received each day x Estimated LNP 2PP% for each day. LNP 2PP% values soured from AEF Regular Forecast. Values for days where these values are not reported by AEF have been interpolated from nearest values either side of the missing days. Postal votes: Total estimated postal votes x Average estimated LNP 2PP% during the prepoll period.
Remaining LNP votes required to win:	5,561,165	Estimated LNP votes required to win election - Estimated total early LNP votes cast to date.
% of remaining votes LNP required to win:	55.85%	Estimated remaining LNP votes required to win / Estimated remaining votes to be cast.
Current LNP 2PP early vote rate:	49.13%	Early LNP votes cast to date / Early votes cast to date.

Projection for the remainder of the campaign

Metric	Value	Explanation
Avg Prepoll votes per day for this week:	819,757	Total number of prepoll votes reported / days of prepolling.
Prepoll days remaining to count:	1
Prepoll votes to be casted:	819,757	Average Prepoll votes per day x Prepoll days remaining.
Postal votes still to be received	158,330	Total expected Postal votes - Postal votes received so far.
Total Early votes to be casted	978,087	Prepoll votes to be casted + Postal votes still to be received.
LNP Early votes to be casted at current rate	480,494	Prepoll votes to be casted x Estimated current LNP 2PP%.
Total votes remaining to be cast on election day:	8,979,409	Remaining votes to be cast - Estimated Early votes to be casted.
LNP votes required on election day to win:	5,080,671	Remaining LNP votes required to win - Estimated LNP prepoll votes to be casted.
LNP 2PP% required on election day:	56.58%	LNP votes required on election day to win / Estimated votes remaining to be cast on election day.
Conversion rate for LNP 2PP% Early Vote to LNP 2PP% Election Day:	93.30%	2022 LNP 2PP% Election Day Vote / 2022 LNP 2PP% Prepoll Vote. Based on 2022 rates. This allows the current LNP 2PP% early vote to be converted to a forecasted LNP 2PP% election day vote.
Forecasted Election Day LNP 2PP%:	45.84%	Current LNP 2PP early vote rate x LNP 2PP% Election Day as a % of LNP 2PP% Early vote (2022).
LNP 2PP% Deficit	-10.74%	Forecasted Election Day LNP 2PP% - Required Election Day LNP 2PP% .