The following is a forecast for the 2025 Federal Election based on a predictive model developed by Social Change Media.
The model is based on historical swing variations across states and seats with major independent challenges over the last 6 elections. The model also incorporates the potential for polling error, similar in scale to the polling error of the 2019 Federal Election.
See the 2025 Federal Election Forecast Model Primer for a full explanation of the model.
Australian 2025 Federal Election Forecast
Last updated: 29 Apr 2025 5:30 pm because of Resolve Strategic 53-47..
| Current estimated ALP National 2PP% | 52.40% * |
|---|
* Calculated from a weighted average of SCM's PollTrend and the AEF Regular Forecast.
Seats Forecast
| Worst | Lower | Median | Upper | Best | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | 70 | 74 | 80 | 85 | 88 |
| LNP | 40 | 45 | 52 | 59 | 64 |
| IND | 10 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 16 |
| GRN | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| CA | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| KAP | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Range categories
| Range | Explanation |
|---|---|
| Worst | The number seats or less in this category would occur 5% of the time, or once in every 20 elections. |
| Lower to Upper | The number of seats won in this range would occur 66.67% of the time or twice in every 3 elections. Seats won within this range are twice as likely to occur to those outside of this range. |
| Median | This is the most likely number of seats won. |
| Best | The number of seats or more in this category would occur 5% of the time, or once in every 20 elections. |
Probability Ratings
| RESULT | ALP | LNP |
|---|---|---|
| Winning less than 73 seats | 10.17% | 99.79% |
| Minority Government (73-75 seats) | 13.26% | 0.16% |
| Majority Government (76+ seats) | 76.57% | 0.05% |
| Any type of win | 89.83% | 0.22% |
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